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Calculating True Probabilities

February 28, 2011 2 comments

Finally, as promised, the time has come to reveal the most accurate method for deducing the statistical probabilities of locating ELS encoded text within a block of text. This new method is 100% accurate and will soon replace our most current method in use.

In the past, we have been relying upon very primitive methods that are not suited for Bible Code analysis, because those methods do not consider the fact that the encoded terms we are discovering have been ELS encoded.

Method: (Matches)/Possible * 100 = Inaccurate
How accurate or inaccurate is this old method, really? Well, let’s take a look at the following example. Here we examine the first 24 characters in the book of Genesis: “In the beginning God created”. We have marked where the term GOD can be found within this sentence.

I N T H E B E G I N N I
N G G O D C R E A T E D

Technically, the term GOD, can be found encoded twice within the above text. Once at ELS 0 and again at ELS 8. Note that any term found encoded with an ELS of 0 is verbatim text and the DIVINECODERS software standards do not permit us to consider verbatim text, however, for educational purposes only, we are including it in this example.

As a quick recap, here is the formula that is being used:

Let,
a = Total number of the letter G found in the text.
b = Total number of the letter O found in the text.
c = Total number of the letter D found in the text.
T = Total number of letters in the text.

Thus,
(a+b+c)/T * 100 = (Probability)%

So, quickly counting we find that there are 3 Gs, 1 O, and 2 Ds, with a total of 24 characters, therefore we calculate the following:

(3+1+2)/24 * 100 = 6/24 * 100 = 0.25 * 100 = 25%

Immediately, you should have realized that this calculation is not at all accurate, for instance if we were to break up our sentence into 4 equal parts, like so:

INTHEB – EGINNI – NGGODC – REATED

Then, of course, this formula would be spot on, because as you can see the term GOD at ELS 0 would be found 1 out of every 4 times, however, we are ignoring the encoded text at ELS 8, therefore this formula is not accurate nor suitable for Bible Code analysis.

Calculating with 100% Accuracy
Any pursuit of deriving a formula to predict the occurrence of ELS encoded text within a block of text is absolutely futile, simply because there are too many unknown variables to calculate, such as how large the text is, how many real possibilities there are, and how many actual encoded text there may be. What we actually need is an algorithm.

Ideally, a computer would be used, however, to gain a better understanding of how this all works, let’s discuss how one might manually calculate the true probability associated with locating an encoded word within a block of text. To make this demonstration as simple as possible, let’s use the same 24 character block of text that we used before.

To begin, we must start by determining the exact number of actual possibilities. We do that by examining our text, starting at the last character and then working our way back to the first character, calculating and adding the sums of each possibility as we go.

ELS 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
I N T H E B E G I N N I
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
N G G O D C R E A T E D

As you can see, we are adding verbatim possibilities, for the sake of precision.

ELS 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
I N T H E B E G I N N I
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
N G G O D C R E A T E D

Here we see that ELS 1 produces 20 possibilities within this block of text.

ETC

This process repeats until we reach 0. Altogether, we are able to return a grand total of 132 possibilities. Note that as the size of our text increases, then so will the possibilities.

Finally, we must now determine the exact number of times the term GOD has been encoded within our block of text. Again, this is something that a computer was designed to do better than us humans, but because our sample is so small, then we are able to easily determine that the term GOD can be found encoded a total of 2 times.

Thus, we calculate the true probability of locating the ELS encoded term, GOD, like so:

Let,
a = Total number of times our keyword is encoded.
b = Total possibilities.

Thus,
a/b * 100 = (Probability)%

So, having already defined both a and b, we may now calculate the following:

2/132 * 100 = 0.015151515151515151515151515151515 * 100 = 1.51%

Moreover, if we were to apply our software standards to these results and exclude verbatim text, then the probability of finding the encoded term GOD would be less than 1%:

1/110 * 100 = 0.0090909090909090909090909090909091 * 100 = 0.90%

Keep searching.
DIVINECODERS

Categories: Arguments